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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 83

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 2-R.Woods to HOU 47 for 13 yards (93-A.Gotsis).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model