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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 53

Houston Texans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 18 for 12 yards (92-D.Horton).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.19 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model