Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 89

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 10

(7:38) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to HOU 35, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 2-R.Woods ran ob at HOU 45 for 10 yards (50-S.Olubi).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.21 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 89, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model