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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 16

Houston Texans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model