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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(5:50) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson right end to HOU 38 for 12 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model