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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.48 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model