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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 59

Houston Texans 23 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to IND 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 1-J.Downs to IND 27 for 9 yards (87-C.Stover). PENALTY on IND-38-K.Joseph, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at IND 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.46 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -2.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model