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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model