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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model