Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 72

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(3:18) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to IND 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-13-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.97 EP
75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model