4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 2 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 43-M.Hayball punts 58 yards to LAC 14, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 25 for 11 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model