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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 2 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 43-M.Hayball punts 44 yards to LAC 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.60 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model