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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 22

New Orleans Saints 2 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(:09) 19-B.Grupe 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.98 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model