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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 43-M.Hayball punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP