Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 86

New Orleans Saints 5 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

(9:48) 43-M.Hayball punts 59 yards to LAC 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 39 for 12 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.84 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model