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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 5 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 43-M.Hayball punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model