Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 78

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Punt formation) 16-J.Scott Aborted. 47-J.Harris FUMBLES at LAC 7, recovered by LAC-16-J.Scott at LAC 0. 16-J.Scott to LAC -5 for -5 yards (7-T.Hill). FUMBLES (7-T.Hill), touched at LAC -5, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.72 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.52 EP