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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 8 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 43-M.Hayball punts 46 yards to LAC 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model