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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 8 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.74 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model