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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 8 – Los Angeles Chargers 26

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Shotgun) 3-J.Haener pass deep middle to 16-B.Means to LAC 14 for 36 yards (32-A.Gilman) [93-O.Ogbonnia].

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP