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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New Orleans Saints 2

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to NO 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.14 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model