4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 64

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 17-B.Baringer punts 30 yards to NYJ 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 40 for 6 yards (27-M.Dial).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.25 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model