Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 65

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NE 47 for 40 yards (24-D.Pettus). 17-B.Baringer 25th consecutive game with a 50-yd punt, longest active streak in NFL.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.71 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model