4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 65

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYJ 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model