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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 40

New York Jets 13 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.72 EP