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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 45

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to NE 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-M.Jones ran ob at NE 23 for 12 yards (52-S.Eguavoen).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.98 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.23 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model