4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 61

New York Jets 16 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-M.Jones to NE 9 for -1 yards (26-B.Echols; 19-I.Charles).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.19 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model