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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 5

New England Patriots 14 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 13-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 5, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model