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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 65

Detroit Lions 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to TEN 8, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 16 for 8 yards (33-S.Vaki). FUMBLES (33-S.Vaki), touched at TEN 16, and recovers at TEN 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.65 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model