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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 49

Tennessee Titans 14 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 11-M.Rudolph scrambles right end to DET 47 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.60 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.25 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.97 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.28 EP
PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model