Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 14 – Detroit Lions 42

(11:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to DET 17, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.03 EP
60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model