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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 75

Detroit Lions 42 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to TEN 12, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 23 for 11 yards (84-S.Zylstra, 42-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model