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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 75

Detroit Lions 52 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.57 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model