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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 14 – Detroit Lions 52

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 47 yards to DET 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-K.Raymond to DET 28 for 2 yards (85-C.Okonkwo; 57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.71 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model