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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 66

Detroit Lions 52 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to TEN 10, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-49-H.Hatten.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP