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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 11

Chicago Bears 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.33 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP