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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to CHI 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-D.Carter to CHI 21 for 6 yards (44-O.Pappoe).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.70 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model