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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 35

Chicago Bears 6 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:30) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.31 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model