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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 65

Chicago Bears 9 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 19-T.Taylor punts 62 yards to ARI 3, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 20 for 17 yards (45-A.Ogbongbemiga).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model