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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 49

Chicago Bears 9 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen pushed ob at ARI 43 for 6 yards (16-M.Melton).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model