Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 44

Chicago Bears 9 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI 40 for -16 yards (25-Z.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP

KICK -0.31 EP

51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
49% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model