Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 73

Chicago Bears 9 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 67 yards to ARI 6, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 20 for 14 yards (44-N.Sewell, 22-E.Hicks). CHI-21-J.Jones was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.03 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model