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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 46

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to CHI 1, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-J.Blount.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.79 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP