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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 29 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 1-K.Murray FUMBLES (Aborted) at CHI 30, RECOVERED by CHI-31-K.Byard at CHI 26.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.68 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -2.22 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.68 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model