Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 82

Chicago Bears 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(3:37) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ARI 32, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-G.Dortch to CHI 41 for 27 yards (20-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.73 EP
59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 82, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model