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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(13:11) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to DAL 25, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.65 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model