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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 13-B.Pinion punts 62 yards to DAL 5, Center-49-L.McCullough. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 23 for 18 yards (26-A.Williams; 89-C.Woerner).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.34 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model