Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Atlanta Falcons 14

(:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.65 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -1.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP