4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(13:15) (Punt formation) 5-B.Anger pass incomplete short right to 29-C.Goodwin.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 62, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model