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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 54

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to ATL 1, impetus ends at ATL 1, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-18-D.Clark.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model